Outlooks from the Blacksburg/Roanoke office of the National Weather Service got a little over enthusiastic last week, predicting high temperatures that did materialize, especially with pesky gusty winds that kept things cooler than expected.
Such is the nature of the guesswork called weather forecasting.
Our thermometer on the back porch reads 36 at 0600 on this cloudy Monday and is forecast to reach 50 degrees between 10 and 11 a.m. onto its way to mid 50s for the afternoon.
An overnight low in the mid 40s with a high of 57 if expected, but not promised, on Tuesday with rain before two sunny days in the high 50s and low 60s with a zero chance of wet stuff, then 56 and a slight chance of rain on Friday, showers on Saturday and a chance of snow showers on Sunday.
That’s a cooler guess than what the weather folks predicted one week ago when they expected high 50s and lower 60s through March 15 and now suggest only mid 50s during the days and lows close to freezing at nights.
Gusting winds into the teens and 20 are now part of forecasts for several days.
Roanoke may see low 60s this week but it will be cooler than that here in the mountains and even cooler in higher elevations.
That can mean cooler times for outdoor sports at Floyd County High School as the baseball, softball, soccer, tennis and track teams ramp up for the Spring season.
Snow showers could hit on March 12 and again on March 16.
Could this outlook change?
Of course. Weather forecasting is part science but mostly hope, speculation and guesswork.